2 common (and interlinked) concepts concerning shady practice by online poker sites involve claims that sites unfairly favor new players and ‘punish ‘ those that profit and cash out with bad-beats. These principles are not only common, they're surprisingly strongly held. This article looks at both, pointing out reasons which explain why these perceptions are so deep-seated and then having a look at the evidence supporting them.

We assess the questions of motive and methodology separately in our article asking ‘Is Online Poker Rigged?, here we will target some reasons explaining why the perception of ‘Beginner’s Luck ‘ became established in poker communities internationally. One vital area of poker which many players don't totally appreciate is the short-term swings of fortune in the game “or rather the size of the fluctuations in your bankroll made possible by only one or two key hands. An example will illustrate how easily your bankroll can change:

Imagine two identically talented players, each playing in the $100 buy-in No-Limit Hold'em games for 25 hours in their first month on the web. Each have matching results winning $4 an hour from the tables while they study the ins and outs. The single difference in their hands came in their opponent’s holding one time when they were dealt 2 Kings. Player A got all-in pre-flop against a competitor with a couple of Queens, and won $100. Player B also got all-in pre-flop, only this time his contestant had aces and he lost $100 as an alternative.

At the end of their first month:

Player A had grown his bankroll by $200 “a respectable $8 an hour at the $100 NL game.

Player B had not grown his bankroll by a single penny.

This is only one hand, if you imagine one more where an opponent hit a straight or you were dealt top set against a premium pair you can quickly see how just one or two hands can make a massive difference to your money. As for competitions the swings can have a much bigger effect. Now, take into consideration that most players start out as slight losers (while they study the ins and outs). Yet, thanks to the chance fall of cards around 1/2 them could see their poker bankrolls shoot up in the near term, before the unvarnished reality of their inferior talents over a period of time evened things out in favour of more experienced/skilled opponents.

Beginners luck is a natural explanation “however , the indisputable fact that this does not last can be explained by having a huge sample size to reduce the consequences of your fortunate start, and not always by labeling the poker site as cheating.

The Poker Cash Out Curse

After you reflect upon how simply a favorable coin-flip or run of premium pairs could cause a players bankroll to expand over the short term. Extrapolating this to the ‘Cash Out Curse‘ becomes easy. The pleasure of withdrawing those winnings from the poker site blinds players to the undeniable fact that their loot might have been the result of chance rather than skill. Naturally presuming good fortune is explicitly caused by us and bad fortune by external factors is a great mental protection mechanism “however it frequently blinds new poker players to the indisputable fact that they may not be as skilled as they at first thought. As in our previous example, a few key hands should make a massive short term difference. Cashing out that money is almost always a smart idea, however blaming the poker sites for being ‘rigged ‘ when your true win-rate is later revealed is sometimes an incorrect conclusion to draw!

Is online poker rigged? For a catalogue of fair poker sites, take a look at the links provided.